2022 Final Oscars Predictions: The Collective Predictions in All 23 Categories 



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It’s all come down to this. Ninety-four years of Oscar history have been digested and cross-examined to help yield the critical answer: Which films and performances will win Academy Awards on March 27?

All the statistics that could be broken with “CODA,” “The Power of the Dog” or “Belfast” winning the top prize include:

  • The eleventh film to win without a nomination for best editing.
  • The second film to win best picture without a DGA nomination. The first was “Driving Miss Daisy” (1989).
  • No film has won best picture without a nomination for directing or editing (since the two have co-existed).
  • It would be the third film directed by a woman to win best picture
  • Sixth film to win without a best director nomination: “Wings” (1927/28), “Grand Hotel” (1931/32), “Driving Miss Daisy” (1989), “Argo” (2012) and “Green Book” (2018).

By the sheer scope of its nomination tally, Netflix is the closest it’s ever been to taking home the statuette for the Academy’s most prestigious prize. Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” has won the most critics’ awards for best picture, and the film has walked away with the top honor at the BAFTA and DGA ceremonies, which have Oscar-voter crossover. However, in what feels like an even divide, some Academy members told Variety they were ranking it at No. 1 on their preferential ballot, while others were putting it toward the bottom of that category.

The individual category predictions with the full rankings are on the individual pages.

Friendly reminder: all predictions on the 2022 Oscars Collective are in alphabetical order.

Best Picture

Photo : Courtesy of Apple TV+

Belfast” (Focus Features)
Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas
CODA” (Apple Original Films)***
Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger
Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)
Adam McKay and Kevin Messick
Drive My Car” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
Teruhisa Yamamoto
Dune” (Warner Bros)
Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter
“King Richard” (Warner Bros)
Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith
Licorice Pizza” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson
Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper
The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappie
West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson
“Licorice Pizza” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
Kenneth Branagh
“Belfast” (Focus Features)
Jane Campion***
“The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi
“Drive My Car” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
Steven Spielberg
“West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)

Best Actor

Javier Bardem
“Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
Benedict Cumberbatch
“The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
Andrew Garfield
“Tick, Tick … Boom!” (Netflix)
Will Smith***
“King Richard” (Warner Bros)
Denzel Washington
“The Tragedy of Macbeth” (Apple Original Films/A24)

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain
“The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)
Olivia Colman

“The Lost Daughter” (Netflix)
Penélope Cruz***
“Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Nicole Kidman
“Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
Kristen Stewart
“Spencer” (Neon/Topic Studios)

Best Supporting Actor

Ciarán Hinds
“Belfast” (Focus Features)
Troy Kotsur***
“CODA” (Apple Original Films)
Jesse Plemons
“The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
J.K. Simmons
“Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
Kodi Smit-McPhee
“The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley
“The Lost Daughter” (Netflix)
Judi Dench

“Belfast” (Focus Features)
Ariana DeBose***
“West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
Kirsten Dunst
“The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
Aunjanue Ellis
“King Richard” (Warner Bros)

Best Original Screenplay

Belfast” (Focus Features)***
Kenneth Branagh
Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)
Adam McKay, David Sirota
Licorice Pizza” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
Paul Thomas Anderson
King Richard” (Warner Bros)
Zach Baylin
The Worst Person in the World” (Neon)
Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier

Best Costume Design

Cruella” (Walt Disney Pictures)***
Jenny Beavan
Cyrano” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
Massimo Cantini Parrini, Jacqueline Durran
Dune” (Warner Bros)
Jacqueline West, Robert Morgan
Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
Luis Sequeira
West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
Paul Tazewell

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Coming 2 America” (Amazon Studios)
Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
Cruella” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Nadia Stacey, Carolyn Cousins
Dune” (Warner Bros)
Donald Mowat, Love Larson, Eva von Bahr
The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)***
Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Justin Raleigh
House of Gucci” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
Jana Carboni, Giuliano Mariano, Göran Lundström

Best Visual Effects

Dune” (Warner Bros)***
Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
Free Guy” (20th Century Studios)
Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick
No Time to Die” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould
Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” (Marvel Studios)
Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver
Spider-Man: No Way Home” (Sony Pictures)
Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick

Best Documentary Feature

Ascension” (MTV Documentary Films)
Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell
Attica” (Showtime)
Traci Curry, Stanley Nelson
Flee” (Neon)
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
Summer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)***
Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein
Writing With Fire” (Music Box Films)
Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh

Best International Feature

Drive My Car” (Japan)
dir. Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Flee” (Denmark)
dir. Jonas Poher Rasmussen
The Hand of God” (Italy)
dir. Paolo Sorrentino
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom” (Bhutan)
dir. Pawo Choyning Dorji
The Worst Person in the World” (Norway)***
dir. Joachim Trier

Best Documentary Short


Audible” (Netflix)***
Matt Ogens, Geoff McLean
Lead Me Home” (Netflix)
Pedro Kos, Jon Shenk
The Queen of Basketball” (The New York Times)
Ben Proudfoot
Three Songs for Benazir” (Netflix)
Elizabeth Mirzaei, Gulistan Mirzaei
When We Were Bullies” (Locomotion Films)
Jay Rosenblatt

Best Live Action Short

Ala Kachuu – Take and Run” (Salaud Morisset)
Maria Brendle, Nadine Lüchinger
The Dress” (Salaud Morisset)
Tadeusz Lysiak, Maciej Ślesicki
The Long Goodbye” (WePresent)***
Aniel Karia, Riz Ahmed
On My Mind” (Benzona Film)
Martin Strange-Hansen
Please Hold” (Scavenger Entertainment)
K.D. Dávila, Levin Menekse


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