Less than two years after the global pandemic that affected every corner of the earth, we are witnessing another global disaster.
The Russian-Ukrainian War began in 2014 and escalated in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Over 6.4 million Ukrainians fled the country, and a third of the population was displaced by the invasion, resulting in the largest refugee crisis since World War II.
Although this is a war between two countries in Easter Europe, their conflict has worldwide implications.
Food has suffered due to the loss of arable land, and the disruption of trade flows from Russia to the European Union. The crisis in Ukraine has also increased tensions between Russia and the U.S.
And since Russia and Ukraine export 12% of all traded calories globally, their conflict has the potential to affect every country in the world.
In this piece, we examine how the world has changed since the war, how the food supply chain has been disrupted, and what we can expect in the future.
Impacts of the Russian War in Ukraine on the Global Food Crisis
Several supply chain disruptions were already occurring before the war due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the effects of climate change. And now, the war in Ukraine has worsened a global food crisis that is already frightening.
Energy lawyer Amir Handjani wrote recently about the issue in his recent article, where he explains that the war could result in a synchronized and sustained price increase in nearly every food commodity in the world, lasting more than five years.
Other effects of the war on the global food crisis are:
Increasing Hunger
The food shortage is one obvious and most significant impact of the Russian war on Ukraine. Since these two nations export some of the most critical commodities in the global food system — grains and oilseeds — their disruption has resulted in food distribution.
Underdeveloped regions like Africa are the hardest hit as Ukraine and Russia export staples to these areas.
The United Nations Agencies report that nearly 200,000 Somalis realize they are facing “catastrophic hunger and starvation,” about 18 million Sudanese are facing acute hunger by September, and 19 million Yemenis are facing food insecurity this year.
Slow Transportation of Food
Ukrainian fields typically ship 90 percent of their wheat to international markets by sea. But the Russian blockades on the Black Sea coast have slowed the delivery.
Food transportation has almost always depended on seaports, but now it is being hindered by the Russian-Ukrainian War.
Although grain is being diverted through Europe by rail, road, and river, it is a small proportion of what is shipped via sea routes. For instance, since the war began, Ukrainian grain exports have been reduced from 6 million tonnes to 1.5 million to 2 million tonnes a month.
In addition, sanctions on Russian shipping and financial sectors mean several foreign businesses have refused to do business with Russian companies.
A Rise in Food Prices
Slow distribution and problems with transportation transmit to a rise in food prices for millions of families worldwide. Due to these delays, food prices rose globally even before the war started. However, the escalation of the conflict has increased prices even further in many regions.
For example, countries like Sudan and Yemen were already experiencing internal crises when the Russia-Ukraine conflict occurred. And now, prices of essential commodities like corn and wheat have more than doubled in some cases, and millions of livestock supplying milk and meat to families have died.
Furthermore, fertilizer shortages and high costs mean farmers may skimp on fertilizer, resulting in less productive fields.
Export Restrictions
The increase in food prices has resulted in inflation worldwide, particularly in developing countries. And some countries have increased tariffs on certain goods to curb demand and prevent hoarding.
However, this only exacerbates the situation and further disrupts the food supply in these countries. Meanwhile, as a measure of protecting domestic supplies, some countries have restricted export.
For instance, Malaysia suspended the export of live chickens, arousing concern in Singapore, which imports one-third of its chickens from its neighbor. India also restricted sugar and wheat exports.
The Bottom Line
The impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine goes beyond food. Several lives have tragically ended, and many have been rendered homeless. Businesses have also shut their doors or moved to other countries because of the conflict.
Although the economic impacts are substantial — up to $600 billion so far for Ukraine — human costs may be even more devastating.
Millions of lives are at stake. And many are likely to perish due to hunger if the global food system continues to collapse.
